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After Lockdown, What Happens to Developers?

Most of the world is still in some level of lockdown due to the Corona-virus Pandemic, and the main topic of discussion is how we get out of lockdown and will our world change. So, let’s take a look.

I live in Canada and like most places we’ve been in self isolation and most businesses are either shutdown or running at some minimal service level practicing social distancing. The only developments you hear about are either related to local companies producing ventilators, masks and other PPE (personal protective equipment), or guys building stuff at home. Slightly under the radar we hear large companies (Amazon, Google’s of the world) are hiring and mostly from small companies. So, as we go back to work the large companies are reloading using their cash reserves to build out and prepare for the opening. By contrast small companies are losing developers, probably their younger works.

My investigation suggests that the number of deaths due to the lockdown is rising rapidly and eventually will get reported on at which point governments will roll-back the lockdown. I expect some staged return to work where businesses that support the essential businesses will go first, then any large-scale projects will start up again and then finally smaller businesses will be allowed to operate. I see it likely that there will be restrictions going forward that limit the number of people to some practical number of people. My prediction is that number will be related to school class size so probably 10-25. The number will vary based on the activity and the area you live in. I’d guess each stage will be about 3-4 weeks in length to allow time for any negative effects to be measured.

If you are a younger worker it means you should be looking right now for a position especially if you want to work at one of the big tech companies. If you are a mature developer then your current position is probably going to be enhanced in the short run while the company scrambles to survive. But don’t get cocky small companies that survive will quickly take up the slack and need to hire new people to replace the ones that left which will introduce new competition. As the young workers are scoped up by the big guys it means small companies will have to turn to either mature workers left (unemployed or employed doesn’t matter) and young people that haven’t completed their studies.

I’m confident that once the economy is allowed to comeback it will gain steam with a vengeance because of two factors: 1) countries will be abandoning China and pull back manufacturing and development to more local secure location. 2) there will be lots of “free” money in the economy from all the stimulus packages so its likely to start driving activity. Long term the free money is a problem for now it will help jump start the economy. The wild card is how will each market segment behave when things get going. Easy ones to guess is any activity that requires a large gathering (sports, entertainment) will not return in anything close to how it was before. So take heed, if you are young get out there, otherwise keep the powder dry and get ready for the big race to come.

Cheers!